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Oil Price Projections Continue to Change Radically - No Sign of Volatility Relief

Mark Langner — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:08:35 +0000

Its not an enviable job to sort out the variables that go into oil price projections - but given the magnitude of the revisions we are seeing in these projections I have to wonder how effective the projection models are in dealing with the volatility that the market is showing - what good model that results in a projection that changes by 30 to 100% on a yearly basis? I have no idea as to how much this impacts the volatility of oil prices - but it can't help. The pricing volatility for oil is not only hurting price projection efforts - but its having an impact on production planning. Will it impact green investment in alternatives as well?

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BP and Berkeley Biofuels Lab = Public Interest?

Mark Langner — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:16:37 +0000

BP and Berkeley (and the DOE) have teamed up to pour $500MM into research for biofuels. There was a fluff piece on NPR today about that effort. While on the surface it might be considered admirable that a big oil company would invest in our research of alternative fuel technologies - when you peel back the onion and really look at the deal - its a big giveaway to big oil wrapped in a public relations friendly package.

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IEA Doubles Long term Crude Oil Price Forecast

Mark Langner — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 01:33:20 +0000

I find it pretty comical that in one year the IEA model has projected a 100% increase in its long term price fo oil - mostly attributed to lower economic demand over the same period as was projected in last year's World Energy Outlook. As someone that used to be required to project things for a living it really makes me wonder about the IEA projection model - is the model that sensitive to changes in economic inputs? Or has the world economic outlook for the U.S., Europe, which are still the largest oil users - and will be for the forseeable future - that much dire than 12 months ago given a 22 year tail?

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Shortage of Oil and Drilling Equipment Another Wrinkle in Foreign Dependence on Oil

Mark Langner — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 02:15:18 +0000

Lost in the hoopla about renewed calls to drill ANWAR is the fact that there is a shortage of oil rigs, ships and other assorted resources to extract that oil even if it were enough to make a difference in our gas prices…. As President Bush calls for repealing a ban on drilling off most of [...]

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GE Study Claims Wind Project Tax Subsidies Pay For Themselves

Mark Langner — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 20:20:58 +0000

Today’s cool charts come courtsey of GE. Now, its from GE so they have a vested interest, but today they released a powerpoint with some interesting datapoints regarding wind project impact on tax revenues and investment. GE claims subsized wind projects have a positive net return for the U.S. treasury over their lifetime. The argument [...]

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OPEC Ministers Blame Speculators… You Know They Might Be Right

Mark Langner — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 17:19:23 +0000

Yet another reason why the government is currently failing consumers with its Strategic Petroleum Reserve policy, and why investors in green stocks should tread carefully at current prices. This Forbe’s article outlines how Opec’s president has made the argument that speculators are driving the current high prices for oil. And in all fairness he has [...]

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Republicans Block Two More Bills With Green Investing Impact

Mark Langner — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:18:14 +0000

Looks like solar power, oil, alternative energy and other green investors should expect continuing volitility in shares as congress (well… Republicans really) failed to renew two bills that would have impacted pretty much everything in the sector. First, they shot down a bill that would have imposed a windfall profit tax on Oil Companies and [...]

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High Oil Prices Make Renewable Energy Viable - But Also Grows The Oil Supply

Mark Langner — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 05:34:03 +0000

People talk a lot about alternative fuels being more viable with oil at such high prices. It also, however, makes other, more exotic, fossil fuel extraction techniques viable. This piece in the UK’s Independent outlines how oil reserves are understated because certain known fields are too expensive to extract at this time - and therefore are excluded from oil reserve [...]

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Much Heralded Green Collar/Green Hardhat Job Report Finds That Truck Drivers Can Deliver Organic Produce

Mark Langner — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:02:28 +0000

A new Center for American Progress (CAP) report finds that in a study of 12 states, there are people that work in jobs that could be “green jobs”. And collectively, accross the country this is over 14MM people, or nearly 10% of the U.S. work force. Wow… that’s impressive…. 10% of Americans work in jobs that could be [...]

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The View Through Green Colored Glasses is Opaque

Mark Langner — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 00:15:15 +0000

This post over at The Big Picture got me thinking more about how far we are away from a rational market for green investment - public or private. The problem - opacity - or the opposite of transparency for those of you in a negative mood. Sure there are lots of alternative energy technologies that [...]

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